Analyst Willy Woo in his Bitcoin Forecast 2019 expects the bear market to continue. The bear has been holding the crypto world firmly in its grasp for almost a year now and is gnawing on the nerves of investors. For some time, hopeful investors have therefore been eagerly waiting for the end of the year, when we could usually see a price rally in the past. It is hardly surprisung that many are looking forward to a rally and the approaching beginning of a new bull market in December 2018. The arguments of these optimists are not just the market entry of prestigious investors, but also technical indicators such as the rising Bitcoin transaction rate and the constant daily trading volume. Add to that the lingering sideways trend seen in the last 90 days, often interpreted as a sign that the Bitcoin price in November has finally reached its bottom to be on time to shoot up in the coming weeks.
But not everyone believes that the historical trend will continue at the turn of the year 2018/19. Already at the beginning of this year, we heard a sceptical forecast of Mike Novogratz, crypto investor and founder of Galaxy Investment Partners. Even back then, he thought it was hardly possible that the Bitcoin prize would cross the $10,000 mark in 2018. Instead, he spoke of a continued bear market until mid-2019. Only then did he assume that the trend could reverse due to the increasing involvement of institutional investors.
Willy Woo’s analysis
Shortly before the assumed rally, technical analyst Willy Woo now spoke in favor of a less rosy future for the crypto market in the near future as well. On November 13, he announced a persistent price drop until mid-2019 on Twitter and thus followed in the footsteps of Novogratz. For him, the sideways trend is not a sign the price has reached its bottom as, in his eyes, there just aren’t enough coins being traded. His negative outlook is based on several technical indicators (NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM) that have proven reliable in the past.
His main arguments at a glance:
- The NVTS has fallen below the support line, which is a classic sell-signal.
- The BNM, a classic indicator of an upcoming bull market, has yet to pick up.
Even if Woo doesn’t completely rule out a short-term price increase, his prediction is that the Bitcoin price will continue to stay be below the 200-day moving average, which was $7,000 at the time of his post. “Remember if price goes above the 200DMA, in the history of BTC-USD’s 8 year trade history, it’s been a reliable indicator of bear to bull transitions. It’s too early to transition out of the bear.”
Outlook for 2019
The conclusion he draws is clear: “It’s too early to transition out of the bear.” Instead, he also expects the reversal of the trend to happen in the second quarter of 2019. “Putting together the blockchain view, I suspect the timing for a bottom may be around Q2 2019. After that we start the true accumulation band, only after that, do we start a long grind upwards.”
Putting together the blockchain view, I suspect the timing for a bottom may be around Q2 2019. After that we start the true accumulation band, only after that, do we start a long grind upwards.
This could mean cryptoinvestors could very well have to face a price depression of another 7 months.