Bitcoin Manipulation – BTC market might crash soon!

Is Bitcoin Manipulation real? With Bitcoin’s recent gains, the age-old question of whether BTC will moon again is popping up more and more frequently. Going up by nearly 2000 USD within just a few weeks is something good, or is it?

While many indicators and analysts show bullish signs, one thing is often overlooked. Is there enough traction within the public to sustain the price movement of BTC, or are we facing a large bull trap and a correction very soon?

Most indicators are showing positive signs for BTC and crypto market as a whole, but there is one metric that leads to a worrying conclusion to why the current gains might be the result of whales manipulating the market. The 200 MA and other technical indicators are all pointing upwards but is there enough public interest to fuel the higher BTC prices?

Looking at Google trends, we can see this, which is a good indicator for the current interest of the public in BTC in general:

BTC Interest Level
Level of interest for BTC in organic search

While the price for BTC is moving up, we do not see a corresponding spike in interest through organic searches. A spike, however, is something one would usually expect if we are entering another bull run like in 2017 as the Google Trends indicator moved in tandem with BTC’s price. While there is currently no concrete evidence, it is possible that the current market is not driven by the masses like in 2017 but by major whales. If this is true, it would mean that the current price movement is neither natural nor sustainable, even if other technical indicators are pointing upwards and we can expect a sudden crash as soon as the whales stop propping up the BTC market.

What indicates that the market is driven by manipulators?

  • There have not been any major news or developments in the past few weeks, and usually, large price movements happen, if there is major news.
  • The most recent Binance hack did not have any long-lasting negative effect on prices, even though hacks of large exchanges usually result in major downwards price action. (i.e. Mt.Gox)
  • BitFinex/Tether “losing” 850 million USD funds did not push prices down, even though it would have been expected
  • The level of public interest in BTC is low, while the price is moving up as if there was public interest on levels like back at the end of 2017.

No real positive news, no renewed growth of interest in BTC, and major growth in price despite major negative news is something that would suggest manipulation upwards through BTC.

But what is the endgame?

While currently BTC shorts are being liquidated on all exchanges in large volume, a manipulation scenario would suggest that the endgame of this manipulation is a BTC and overall market crash. While BTC shorts are suffering now the positive long-term indicators, positive community outlook, and fast upwards price movement results in large numbers of BTC long positions to be opened. A logical and sound move, if the current growth is natural and sustainable. This, however, could also well be a giant bull trap if this growth was just manipulation by BTC whales who not only profit from liquidating the shorts but also liquidating the longs when the market collapses once the whales stop propping the price up.

What will happen to the BTC if it’s manipulated?

If the price is currently manipulated by whales we will see a major crash in prices when either the whales have exhausted their ability to drive up BTC, and it has become too expensive to go up any higher or if the supply of BTC shorts to liquidate dries up and the profitability of upwards price manipulation drops in favor of driving the price down to liquidate longs. Once the longs have the upper hand, it will become more profitable to liquidate them through crashing the market. But to what levels could the market drop? Some analysts looking into the possibility of market manipulation think that we could reach the levels of previous lows and even lowers depending on the profitability.

Why is this profitable for large market influencers?

While costs a lot of money to move the price of BTC up or down, you can profit immensely from screwing speculators on the market as they usually operate on margin or leveraged trading. If for example a short is leveraged with a multiplicator of 10x the loss incurred by the trader when his position is liquidated is 10x of his used capital. In large numbers, the profit of liquidating leveraged positions is higher than the cost of moving BTC’s price to the levels needed to liquidate shorts or longs respectively.

When will we know if the market is being manipulated?

There is no way to determine whether the market is manipulated or not with 100% certainty. It remains to be seen whether the public interest indicator catches up with the current price movement and whether the price stabilizes around new support levels without any major correction in the next few weeks or months. It is entirely possible that the market is being manipulated and the prices rise further or stabilize or that the market is not manipulated, and the price still crashes to a new bottom. The high volatility and a large number of whales in the market make it hard to determine what has to attributed to volatility and what is market manipulation.

What should investors and Hodlers do?

A quickly rising market is bound to introduce new FOMO to the market, and the best action investors and Hodlers can take to be cautious and stick to their long-term investment plans. If the market goes up, further profits are ahead, and if the market crashes, bargains can be head stocking up on BTC. In the long run, it should not matter what the price of BTC does within a year or two. At least, hopefully. 😊

What do you think? Is the market currently being manipulated by the big players or is the current momentum the result of natural growth despite Google Trends showing no real spike in interest in BTC? Let us know in the comments!

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